Long Shot GOP Candidate Brownback Just Five Points Behind Clinton

With the high negatives of Clinton & Obama's lack of experience, I've been convinced that the DEM that will be toughest to beat is Edwards.  A true conservative like Brownback may be the best matchup against him-- Even though Edwards is now positioning himself to the left of Clinton & Obama, he may be acceptable to moderate voters once he centers his views for the general election.  A Republican candidate who appeals to traditional Republican points, a la Ronald Reagan is crucial.  Clearly acticulated GOP values win. 

The danger with Brownback is that he cannot go overboard with being "the religious candidate"- a tag that alienated secular voters against Ken Blackwell in the 2006 Ohio Governors race.  Brownback's religious views can only be a part of his marketing "package".  The role-model here is George W. Bush.  Be religious, but don't be a "bible-thumper"-- no Pat Robertson campaign, or the moderates will flee for the DEM. 

But then why not a true GOP moderate like Giuliani or McCain?  look to the 2000 election and the result with the left fleeing to GREEN Ralph Nader.  A well-known Constitution Party candidate, like Pat Buchanan, Alan Keyes or Tom Tancredo and the DEMs can walk back into the White House with 48% of the popular vote. 

--Ron Lisy

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From rasmussenreports.com

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey gauging general-election support for Republican Senator Sam Brownback (news, bio, voting record) shows him trailing Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton among likely voters by the narrow margin of just five percentage points. It's Clinton 46% Brownback 41%.

However, Democratic Senator Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) leads Senator Brownback by the much wider margin of 49% to 34%.

Clinton and Obama lead the polls for Democrats seeking their party's 2008 Presidential nomination. While Clinton has been ahead in every Rasmussen Reports poll for the Democratic nomination, Obama and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards generally do better in general election match-ups (see summary of all match-ups).

Brownback, who announced his presidential candidacy on January 20 as a staunch religious conservative, is in the second tier of GOP Presidential hopefuls.

Both Clinton and Obama have high name recognition, but Clinton is saddled with higher unfavorables. Forty-eight percent (48%) view her unfavorably, 34% "very unfavorably." Throughout 2005 and 2006, our Hillary Meter indicated that a plurality of likely voters would not vote for the former First Lady no matter who she might run against. 

Obama is viewed unfavorably by 37%. Only 14% dislike him strongly.

Brownback is an unknown to 43%, and viewed favorably by only 19%. Just a couple weeks after his announcement, the percentage who view him favorably isn't any larger even among Republicans. 

That may change as Senator Brownback becomes better known. But the enthusiasm especially for Giuliani among Republicans persists despite the mayor's willingness to openly acknowledge disagreements with social conservatives on abortion and other hot-button issues.

This national telephone survey of 800 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 5-6, 2007. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

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