Unhappy Republicans could tip 2006 election

MANY FAITHFUL ARE DISILLUSIONED, CAN'T SEE VOTING FOR GOP
By Steven Thomma And James Kuhnhenn
KNIGHT RIDDER NEWS SERVICE

GOLDEN, Colo. - Brian Wareing has been a Republican all his life. But ask him how his party has done running the federal government and his complaints pile up: Immigration. Spending. Trade. He's had enough.

He won't vote for a Democrat in November's congressional elections. But he might vote for a third-party candidate -- or he might not vote at all. "At this point, I couldn't vote for the Republican," the house painter from this Denver suburb said.

Across the country this spring, many Republicans alternate between anger and ambivalence five years after their party seized power over the federal government and seven months before a pivotal election for control of Congress.

If enough disgruntled Republicans sit out the midterm elections -- when voter turnout typically is low and victory goes to the party whose base is most passionate -- Republican incumbents could lose in close contests such as the one in Golden.

Democrats need to gain only 15 of 435 seats to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and six of the 33 that are up this year to take the 100-member Senate. National trends suggest that's possible. Solid majorities of adults disapprove of Bush, the war in Iraq, the leadership of Congress and the direction of the country, according to a series of polls. Increasingly, the national mood seems to mirror 1994, when voters turned sour on President Clinton, rejected Democratic lawmakers and installed a Republican majority in Congress for the first time in 40 years.

The one shred of good news for the Republican Party now: Not many House and Senate contests appear all that competitive yet. Iraq and disillusionment with Bush don't yet trump voters' local concerns in many states. And the threat of a Democratic Congress still could rally the Republican base.

But it's clear from dozens of interviews in key battlegrounds that Republican voters today lack the passion they brought to the 2002 midterm elections. And that gives Democrats an opportunity.

At a recent breakfast in Golden, one Republican after another put voices behind those numbers, complaining about Washington policies from the war in Iraq and the failure to stop illegal immigration to runaway federal spending. The cumulative effect led several to question whether they or like-minded party loyalists would vote next fall.

"I've been a Republican since I started voting," said John Burdan, a retired Air Force officer from Jefferson County, outside Denver. "Things are going terrible. I won't vote for a Democrat. But I might not vote for the Republican."

"Doesn't Bush know that Republicans are watching?" asked Jefferson County Commissioner Jim Congrove. "We're setting ourselves up for big defeats."

Almost everywhere, it's easy to find Republicans who once were inspired by Bush and the Republican Congress and now seem dispirited.

In Florida, for example, a lukewarm attitude is pervasive in the Palm Beach district where Republican Rep. E. Clay Shaw Jr., a 13-term veteran, faces a tough re-election.

"There are a lot of problems out there," said Republican David Boyer, a hotel employee from Hollywood, Fla. "Can a Republican do it? I doubt it. Can a Democrat do it? I doubt it."

In Connecticut, some Republicans fear that their party could be hurt by growing opposition to Bush and the Iraq war.

"If the president is doing really well, I'll do better; if he's not doing really well, I'll do worse," said Rep. Christopher Shays, a nine-term incumbent.