The Nancy Problem

A look at the upcoming U.S. House races from Bob Novak...

'The Nancy Problem': As we noted a few weeks ago, the leadership of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has been politically dangerous for Democrats at a time when they should be poised for major victories in November's elections.

     1) We are not alone in noticing this. Pelosi has disappointed Democrats across the political spectrum -- they refer to their worries over this matter as "The Nancy Problem."

     2) One illustrative story comes to us from just before the year-end adjournment. As Pelosi finished a combative floor speech, a very liberal member of Congress approached her second-in-command, Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), and whispered in his ear: "Steny, is it not time for a coup?"

     3) House Democrats do not normally get rid of their leaders with coups, as Republicans have periodically over the last half-century. And dissatisfaction with Pelosi's performance is pervasive over the ideological spectrum. Her colleagues grumble that under her leadership, the party lacks a focus and a clear agenda necessary to take advantage of Republican disarray. They also bristle at the fact that her election to leadership came about solely because of nearly unanimous support from the large House delegation from her home state. Thirty of the thirty-one Democrats from California supported her over Hoyer for the whip position in October 2001.

     4) The disarray will only worsen in the wake of lobbyist Jack Abramoff's pleading guilty to several federal charges, perhaps spawning a massive corruption investigation of more than ten House members, most of them Republicans. Democrats are potentially faced with a major windfall, but they feel that Pelosi is, at best, a hindrance to their efforts.

     5) The Democrats' problem, however, goes beyond the failings of their party leader. Within the House, they are still tied to obsolete procedures that freeze in place aged committee leaders. These procedures -- especially their dogged adherence to the rules of seniority -- once helped them keep their grasp on the Solid South by ensuring that aged yellow-dog Democrats held on to conservative seats. But since the Republican takeover of 1994, that has become a thing of the past. Now the Democrats leading debates in the House -- the ranking members of the committees that write all the bills -- look like a lineup of "who's who over the age of 75." Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.), the ranking member of the budget committee, appears the young man at the tender age of 63.

     6) The Democrats' rhetoric today also betrays failure to free themselves from New Deal tax-and-spend policies, and from a class warfare ideology that has never appealed to Americans as a whole. The Republican majority looks divided, out of gas and threatened by serious scandals, and indeed it is. But Democrats also fear they are ill equipped to take advantage of their opportunity.

Election Scorecard: This week, with Congress gone, we present a reference list of the most competitive House races of 2006. In our estimation, Democrats are likely to gain a few seats, and several more -- perhaps a House majority -- if they can get their act together. We give a very brief summary for the races we believe will determine who gains and who loses, and perhaps who gets the majority.

POSSIBLE DEMOCRATIC GAINS (19)

Arizona-8: The retirement of liberal Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) from his swing district gives Democrats an opportunity. The most likely Republican nominee is conservative former state Rep. Randy Graf (R), and among Democrats former state Sen. Gabrielle Gifford starts as the frontrunner.

Colorado-4: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) is considered vulnerable once again. This year she will likely face state Rep. Angie Paccione (D).

Colorado-7: This hotly competitive open seat will feature either Jefferson County Treasurer Mark Paschall (R) or Rick O'Donnell (R), Deputy Chief of Staff for Gov. Bill Owens, on the GOP side, and state Rep. Peggy Lamm (D) or former state Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) on the Democratic side.

Connecticut-2: Rep. Rob Simmons came close to defeat in 2004. This year he is somewhat stronger as he faces his 2002 opponent, former state Rep. Joe Courtney (D).

Connecticut-4: Rep. Chris Shays (R) is as weak as ever, and now he will face serious competition in a rematch against Diane Farrell (D).

Illinois-6: State Sen. Pete Roskam (R) seeks to keep the seat of retiring Rep. Henry Hyde (R) in Republican hands, against either military veteran Tammy Duckworth (D) or 2004 loser Christine Cegelis (D).

Indiana-2: Rep. Chris Chocola (R) will likely face a rematch against moderate businessman Joe Donnelly (D) in one of the most competitive districts in the United States.

Indiana-8: Rep. John Hostettler (R), who through erratic behavior and poor fundraising manages to make his own race too close for comfort almost every cycle, goes for a fourth term against Vandenburg County (Evansville) Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D), perhaps his strongest opponent yet.

Indiana-9: Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) faces a rematch with former Rep. Baron Hill (D), whom he narrowly defeated in 2004.

Iowa-1: Rep. Jim Nussle (R) is leaving this Democratic-leaning district to run for governor. The leading Republicans for the nomination are state Sen. Bill Dix and businessman Mike Whalen. Waterloo lawyer Bruce Braley and 2004 loser Bill Gluba will face off in a Democratic primary.

Minnesota-6: The Senate run by Rep. Mark Kennedy's (R) leaves this seat open for a large field of conservative Republican candidates -- including state Senators Michelle Bachmann and Phil Krinkie, and state Rep. Jim Knoblach. Former state Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg will likely win the Democratic nomination.

New Mexico-1: Rep. Heather Wilson (R) will face state Atty. Gen. Patricia Madrid (D).

North Carolina-8: Rep. Robin Hayes (R) may face Iraq veteran Tim Dunn (D).

North Carolina-12: Rep. Charles Taylor (R) will face football star Heath Shuler (D).

Ohio-18: The seat of Rep. Bob Ney (R) could be in jeopardy if sufficiently damaging news emerges from the trial of embattled and indicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Pennsylvania-6: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) will face another tough contest against Democrat attorney Lois Murphy.

Pennsylvania-8: In a test of whether a conservative can hold this liberal Republican district, freshman Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) will face either Iraq War veteran Patrick Murphy (D) or former Bucks County Commissioner Andrew Warren (D).

Texas-23: It would be Democrats' dream come true to eliminate House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R). Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D) will try, but despite some favorable early polls, he definitely begins as the underdog.

Virginia-2: Rep. Thelma Drake (R) could face a serious challenge from Virginia Beach Revenue Commissioner Phil Kellam (D).

POSSIBLE REPUBLICAN GAINS (11)

Georgia-8: Former Rep. Mac Collins (R) will attempt a comeback against moderate Rep. Jim Marshall (D) after redistricting put Marshall into much of Collins's old territory.

Georgia-12: The 2005 redistricting placed Rep. John Barrow (D) on slightly more Republican turf, giving former Rep. Max Burns (R) hope for a comeback.

Illinois-8: Three wealthy Republicans -- Kathy Salvi, Teresa Bartels, and David McSweeney -- seek the nomination to unseat freshman Rep. Melissa Bean (D) in a district with a fairly solid Republican majority.

Iowa-2: Rep. Leonard Boswell (D), who has had health problems, will face state Senate President Jeff Lamberti (R) in a district that leans slightly Republican.

Louisiana-3: Freshman Rep. Charles Melancon (D) will have to defend his turf against state Sen. Craig Romero (R).

Ohio-6: Rep. Ted Strickland's (D) run for governor leaves a very competitive seat open, and former state House Speaker Chuck Blasdel (R) is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. State Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) is the favorite on the Democrats' side.

South Carolina-5: Veteran Rep. John Spratt (D) will face a test of his strength in the form of a challenge from state Rep. Ralph Norman (R).

Texas-17: Rep. Chet Edwards (D) will try to hang on to his very Republican district against either Tucker Anderson (R), former legislative director and counsel for Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Tex.) or Iraq war veteran Van Taylor (R).

Utah-2: Rep. Jim Matheson (D), in a heavily Republican district, will face off against either moderate radio host Doug Wright (R) or conservative state Rep. LaVar Christensen (R).

Vermont-AL: State Adjutant General Martha Rainville (R) will probably face State Sen. Peter Welch (D) as independent socialist Rep. Bernie Sanders runs for Senate.

Virginia-9: This race becomes interesting only if failed gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore (R) tries to challenge Rep. Rick Boucher (D). Despite his horrible gubernatorial campaign, Kilgore carried his home district by more than ten points.

OTHER RACES TO WATCH

We also summarize some other important races in which seats are unlikely to change hands, but which may determine the House's ideological lean after November 2006.

Idaho-1: State Rep. Bill Sali (R) is the slight favorite in a primary against moderate former State Sen. Sheila Sorensen (R) and a few minor candidates.

Mississippi-3: Rep. Bennie Thompson (D) will likely face a strong primary challenge from state Rep. Chuck Espy.

Nebraska-3: State Sen. Adrian Smith, Grand Island Mayor Jay Vavricek, and former Capitol Hill aide John Hanson will face off in the Republican primary to succeed Rep. Tom Osborne (R).

Nevada-2: Assemblywoman Sharon Angle, former Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons, and Secretary of State Dean Heller will face off for the GOP nomination in this heavily Republican district.

New Jersey-1: Rep. Rob Andrews (D) has until April to decide whether he will run a primary challenge against appointed Sen. Robert Menendez (D). If he does, the Democratic primary will be interesting, but Republicans have little chance of bringing the seat into play.

New York-11: The retirement of Brooklyn Rep. Major Owens (D) has opened up a Democratic contest among City Councilman David Yassky, State Sen. Carl Andrews, Assemblyman Nick Perry, Councilwoman Yvette Clarke, and the congressman's son, Chris Owens.

Ohio-2: Former Rep. Bob McEwen will take on freshman Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) in a primary that will serve as a rematch of last year's special election.

Ohio-4: State Sen. Jim Jordan (R) and state Rep. Mike Gilb (R) will face off to succeed Rep. Mike Oxley (R) in this heavily Republican district.

Ohio-13: With Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) running for governor, former Rep. Tom Sawyer and former state Rep. Betty Sutton will face off for the Democratic nomination in this heavily Democratic district.

Oklahoma-5: Lt. Gov. Mary Fallin (R) is currently the frontrunner to succeed Rep. Ernest Istook (R) as he runs for governor. Also in the race is state Rep. Fred Morgan (R).

Tennessee-9: As Rep. Harold Ford (D) seeks the Senate seat of Bill Frist (R), he leaves open a congressional seat that will spawn a competitive Democratic primary.

Texas-28: Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) will face a primary rematch against former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D).

 

 

 

 

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